Embattled
Israeli Prime Minister Fighting to Retain Power (Stratfor)
Summary
Prime Minister Ehud Barak intensified efforts Oct.22 to form an emergency government
of national unity. By forming a unity government with the far right Likud party, Barak
forestalls the possibility of immediate elections and retains Israeli leadership. But to
do so, Barak must abandon his platform of peace and take a hardline stance against the
Palestinians, undercutting the future of the peace process and his political survival.
Analysis
With violence in Israel escalating and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat refusing to
rein in violent factions of his ruling Fatah party, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has
now taken the hardline and intensified efforts to form a national emergency unity
government.The move would allow Barak to deal with the Palestinians and hawkish members of
government without risking his position as Israel’s leader. But because of the
violence and Barak’s inability to curb it, the Prime Minister faces the possibility
the Israeli parliament will call for early elections.A unified government would forestall
elections for the short term and give the Prime Minister time to quell the violence and
regain support among Israelis. But bringing in the opposition Likud party will alienate
Barak’s ruling coalition from some of the more moderate parties in parliament. Also,
a new hardline stance will pressure Arafat to become more hardline in return, thus
damaging chances of reaching an effective ceasefire.A call for early elections by the
Knesset, which returns for its winter session on Oct. 30, would likely end Barak’s
tenure as prime minister. After three weeks of violence, the prime minister’s
popularity has taken a nosedive.
Current polls indicate early elections would favor the return of former Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu. A Gallup poll published by the Israeli daily Ma’ariv indicated that if elections were now, Barak would lose. Netanuyahu, who hasn’t even announced an intention to run, is the favorite to win with a margin of 48 percent compared to Barak’s 27 percent. Even Ariel Sharon, a hawkish leader of the opposition Likud party with 41 percent, beats Barak with only 31 percent.To prevent a loss at the polls, Barak hopes to co-opt the Likud and form an emergency government. On Oct. 22, the Prime Minister ordered negotiators from One Israel to intensify efforts to reach agreement with other parties in parliament, reported Haaretz, an Israeli daily.But to form a unity government, Barak will have to concede substantial power to Likud. Indeed, according to reports, Sharon has asked for an appointment as either deputy prime minister or foreign minister with full access to all security and diplomatic materials. He has also asked for the right to veto any diplomatic or security related government decisions and equal membership in the cabinet of right and left wing members with certain ministries assigned specifically to Likud members.
An
emergency unity government would severely damage future negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinians. Sharon is firmly against the concessions Barak offered the Palestinians
during last year’s Camp David accords and has called for withdrawing these
concessions from negotiations.
Sharon
has a strong incentive to form a unity government with Barak. Although Sharon leads the
Likud party, he doesn't enjoy nearly the support of Netanyahu. By forming an alliance with
Barak, Sharon boosts his own position within the government without competing in
elections.
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