Lebanon’s Presidential Election: The Calamities of Consensus
Joseph Hitti
Boston, Massachusetts – November 20, 2007

Between now and this weekend (November 24), Lebanon will either have a “consensus” President or all hell will break loose. The problem is neither of these two scenarios is likely to be constitutional (proper process) or in the interests of the Lebanese people (proper substance). Moreover, this is a problem with a rotten twist: The international community (France, US, Arab League, etc.) is backing the first scenario only to avoid the second one. This is exactly the same mistake that the international community made in 1989 with the Taif Agreement, when expediency, fear and problem-avoidance took precedence over genuine, principled and long term solutions. The predicament Lebanon is in today is the direct result of the 1989 Taif Agreement farce and the cookbook elections and solutions that followed it.

As we speak, both scenarios are being cooked up. The first scenario – the Consensus President scenario – is being pushed by France and the international community. The second scenario – the All Hell scenario – is being pushed by Iran and Syria, via Hezbollah. The proper scenario would be one based on reason, democracy and the rule of law, as promoted by presidential candidate Chibli Mallat, but unfortunately for Mr. Mallat and the majority of the Lebanese people, there is no room for reason and the rule of law in the theocratic-feudal-nepotistic entity that calls itself the State of Lebanon. The proper scenario would have allowed candidates such as Mr. Mallat, Mr. Etienne Sacre (Leader of the Guardians of the Cedars Party) and others to publicly declare their candidacies and compete, and then for Parliament to meet and vote…and the winner would be whoever he or she may be, as long as the process follows constitutional and lawful terms and conditions.

But not in Lebanon. Backroom deals is the norm. More like the election of a Pope, but then the Vatican is no democracy, and neither is Lebanon. The Lebanese people “will be told” who their new President is when the white smoke rises. They’ll be the last to know who the new Maronite effigy will be for the next sis years. On days like these, I am ashamed of being Lebanese because the whole process makes a mockery of our claims that ours is the only democracy in the Arab world.

I would have liked to support the candidacy of General Michel Aoun because he is the only one likely to bring some reforms to the deadly cancers that are ravaging the country: A corrupt and feudal political class, the supremacy of religion and the power of the religious elites, and an archaic and bureaucratic administration that have made Lebanon the laughingstock of the Arab world.

But Aoun has struck an alliance with Hezbollah and is positioning himself as the only candidate who can bring Hezbollah into the political fold (i.e. abandon its weapons and renounce terrorism) under vague promises made by Hezbollah in a Memorandum of Understanding signed with Aoun in February 2006. The problem for Aoun, however, is that his alliance with Hezbollah continues to appear one-sided: By all measures, Hezbollah has gained much more from the alliance than Aoun has. In the nearly two years since signing the Memorandum with Hezbollah, the latter has not only not made any concession or shown any willingness to reintegrate a strictly national Lebanese platform, but it has become further emboldened and radicalized, and ignited a devastating war with Israel in July 2006. Aoun has not managed to convince Hezbollah to give any indication that it is willing to deal. This indicates that Hezbollah is using Aoun and can recant on any promises, written or verbal, it made to Aoun. Accepting Aoun’s proposition that he can deliver Hezbollah is a decision that can only be made on faith, which is difficult in matters of national destiny. Therefore, with Aoun or without him, the All Hell scenario is looming large.

This leaves us with the Consensus President Scenario. I pity the Lebanese people for the predicament they’re in. For once in a long time, the country has an opportunity to demonstrate its independence, and yet the corrupt political establishment is still in control, backed unfortunately by the West and the international community. The only candidate with the charisma and the vision to change things has made an alliance with a suicidal lunatic fringe that is threatening to bring the temple down on everyone’s heads. And so, the Lebanese people have to resort to yet another backroom deal for choosing a President, one in which everybody but the Lebanese people has a say: The US, the EU, the UN, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and the Arab League. And to add further insult to further injury, it is an unelected Maronite, Patriarch Sfeir, in collusion with a malevolent Shiite Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and a filthy rich incompetent Sunni - Daddy’s boy Saad Hariri, who are cooking up the new “consensus” (understand spineless, weak, non-viable and equally corrupt) President, like a hybrid from Dr. Moreau’s island laboratory notebooks.

It is refreshing to read the electoral program of Guardians of the Cedars Party leader Etienne Sacre. We may not agree with every point, but the program speaks to the aspirations of the vast majority of the Lebanese people because it addresses the core of the problem:

1 – Declare the neutrality of Lebanon and distance it permanently from the politics of regional axes, and work with the United Nations for an international consolidation of that neutrality.

2 – Declare faith in the Lebanese Nation based on its existence as a complete, eternal and final nation endowed with all the attributes, characteristics and properties that this entails, and recuperate Lebanon’s unique Lebanese identity to the exclusion of all foreign qualifiers.

3 – Separate Religion from the State and work to adopt and establish the secular State.

4 – Fully implement all international resolutions pertaining to Lebanon, particularly resolutions 1559 and 1701, and support the establishment of the International Tribunal and facilitate its work and abide by its decisions.

5 – Eliminate and disarm the private mini-states and protectorates, both Lebanese and non-Lebanese, dismantle their infrastructures and subject them to the authority of the Lebanese Army and the Internal Security Forces.

6 – Join in the international campaign for combating terrorism, hunt down the terrorist organizations that operate in Lebanon, and eradicate their active and sleeper cells in completion of the Army’s work in Nahr El-Bared.

7 – Adopt a peer-to-peer policy in dealing with neighboring states, particularly with the Syrian State, and tightly control the borders between them and Lebanon by seeking the assistance of the international forces to the Lebanese Army in performing this task.

8 – Join in the endeavor of reforming the State and modernize its institutions, dismiss the excessive bureaucracy and adopt the principle of employment on the basis of merit and competence rather than on the basis of nepotism and cronyism.

9 – Abolish the permits of political parties with a non-Lebanese allegiance, especially those parties with links to terrorist regimes, and deny them operating from Lebanese territory.

10 – Stand up to the practice of the wholesale selling of Lebanese real estate to foreigners. Recover all real estate purchased in suspicious schemes or for the objectives of sectarian partition, changing Lebanon’s demographic composition or harming Lebanon’s national and social fabric.

11 – Bring an end to all collective naturalizations, withdraw Lebanese citizenship from newly naturalized but unmeritorious recipients, and grant citizenship only to qualified individuals who have given outstanding services to Lebanon.

12 – Prevent the permanent settlement of the Palestinian refugees by seriously and persistently seeking their return to their homes or expatriating them to countries that are able to absorb them.

13 – Grant the opportunity for Lebanese nationals residing in the broader Lebanese expatriate Diaspora to participate in the legislative elections by voting and running as candidates.

14 – Support the military institution and the security forces will all necessary material, financial and moral support to enable it to fully discharge its national obligations.

15 – Amend the Taif Agreement so as to reinstate the authority and prerogatives to the Presidency of the Republic, regardless of the sectarian denomination of the President.

The Consensus President who is being “prepared” for the country by Patriarch Sfeir, Nabih Berri and Saad Hariri, backed by France and the US, has only one program: To serve those who made him President, and not the Lebanese people. Hezbollah’s program is full of missiles, rockets, bombs, more wars and liberations, turbans, holy books, and too many Iranians to appeal to any sensible Lebanese who is not on Hezbollah’s payroll. General Aoun’s program may be full of promise when it comes to reforms, but it depends so much on Hezbollah that it raises the suspicions of the Lebanese people. The stage is set: Let the show begin.